Back in Singapore . . . and it sucks

Before I start on the rubbish flight back to Singapore, there is a book that I am supposed to buy but missed buying it in the US. Published in 2005, it is almost prophetic in view of the current situation where you are bombarded by thousands of economic analysts telling you what is going to happen in 2009.

Author Philip Tetlock documents in his book “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” that people who make prediction their business—people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables—are no better than the rest of us. They rarely admit it when they are wrong in their predictions. They just insist that they are blindslided by an improbable event e.g. sub-prime crisis.

Conclusion : These experts are just as likely to be right in their predictions as a group of monkeys picking outcomes from a hat.

Which by the way, I sat down in front of my TV and watched Singapore programme for the first time in months. Channel U news was interviewing cab drivers and people on the streets on how the recession was hurting them. Some flower seller said that sales had been down 10%. The same goes for the cab driver with regards to the passengers that he had been picking up. All I can think of is: good. We don't need so many cabs on the road and flowers around anywhere. I never really understand the purpose of such interviews. Is it meant to make me feel good that I have a job and that some people are worse off than me? Is it meant to frighten me into keeping a tight string around my purse? My guess is that all this negative programming is to deepen the gloom and doom which makes it easier for the public to accept the bad economic indicators that the government is going to roll out in January for the budget. The public may also be more appreciative of any help that the government doles out.

Oh, the flight.

The 20+ flight from NY on Singapore Airline was harrowing. Some years back, I was one of SQ's biggest fan but the standard nowadays has dropped somewhere between mediocre and WTF-is-going-on. SQ used to have the best planes around. When SQ rolls out the individual passenger's screen thing, it was like WOW. Now every airline had the same facilities and in fact better. When I took Virgin America to LA, I can order free drinks on my modern touch screen. Just touch a few buttons and the gay steward comes back with a hot tea. Great! Now SQ plane is old and its facilities are antiquated. And the food. OMG, SQ food has clearly gone down the tube. I didn't even bother to take any pictures since they looked like a mess. Braised chicken and steam rice for dinner was as bad as it sounded. Yee foo noodles and minced beef for breakfast (yay, breakfast) was even worse than anyone could anticipate.

On a brighter note, I like this picture taken of me by my friend when I was looking at the Grand Canyon near Las Vegas. It will be my profile pic.

My friend said that the streak in the sky looked like the Silver Surfer coming to Earth to herald the coming of Galactus and inter alia, the end of the world. I looked like a superhero thinking what to do about it e.g. stop the Surfer or just go for a drink and welcome the end of the world.